MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 18, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Miami Marlins (4-15)
Chicago Cubs (11-7)
A.J. Puk
Jameson Taillon
42.5%
57.5%
+150
-159
+152
-160
+1½-140
-1½+137
+1½-145
-1½+135
3.67
4.45
8.12
o7½-110
u7½-103
o8+110
u8-125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Arizona Diamondbacks (9-10)
San Francisco Giants (8-11)
Ryne Nelson
Logan Webb
42.9%
57.1%
+134
-143
+134
-139
+1½-160
-1½+152
+1½-165
-1½+155
4.20
4.95
9.15
o7½-113
u7½+100
o8+102
u8-120
Games for Apr 17, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Los Angeles Angels (9-9)
Tampa Bay Rays (10-9)
44.7%
55.3%
+129
-136
+130
-139
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-160
-1½+146
8.58
o8½-108
u8½-105
o8½-110
u8½-105
6th
TOP
0
2
Texas Rangers (10-9)
Detroit Tigers (10-8)
51.2%
48.8%
-109
+101
-110
+102

-1½+150
+1½-160
8.83
o9+100
u9-113
o9+100
u9-115
4th
BOT
7
4
Cleveland Guardians (12-6)
Boston Red Sox (10-9)
48.9%
51.1%
-106
+101
-107
+102

+1½-200
-1½+189
9.06
o8½+100
u8½+102
o8½-105
u8½-105
4th
TOP
2
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Cleveland Guardians
Boston Red Sox
45.6%
54.4%
+121
-129
+123
-127
+1½-168
-1½+155
+1½-167
-1½+155
0
2
-0.58960-0.58864-0.60897
Los Angeles Angels
Tampa Bay Rays
44.4%
55.6%
+105
-114
+108
-110
+1½-197
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+180
5
4
-0.73814-0.73693-0.81243
Colorado Rockies
Philadelphia Phillies
32.0%
68.0%
+200
-215
+210
-220
+1½-110
-1½+107
+1½-108
-1½-110
6
7
-0.39768-0.38472-0.38544
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
61.4%
38.6%
-165
+155
-161
+153
-1½-108
+1½-108
-1½+100
+1½-105
1
2
-0.95078-0.94025-0.95220
Cincinnati Reds
Seattle Mariners
43.9%
56.1%
+120
-127
+122
-127
+1½-185
-1½+167
+1½-185
-1½+168
1
5
-0.59470-0.59064-0.57725
Chicago Cubs
Arizona Diamondbacks
54.1%
45.9%
+116
-123
+115
-123
+1½-180
-1½+173
+1½-180
-1½+170
5
3
-0.78454-0.78202-0.61369
St. Louis Cardinals
Oakland Athletics
55.9%
44.1%
-125
+117
-125
+118
-1½+132
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-146
3
6
-0.79098-0.79350-0.81948
Washington Nationals
Los Angeles Dodgers
31.9%
68.1%
+200
-217
+210
-222
+1½+100
-1½-113
+1½+110
-1½-110
2
0
-1.11633-1.14335-1.14162
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
49.3%
50.7%
+106
-115
+105
-110


6
4
-0.74282-0.72940-0.70721
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
57.2%
42.8%
-129
+123
-130
+123
-1½+122
+1½-135
-1½+118
+1½-135
5
4
-0.58559-0.58410-0.55809
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
59.5%
40.5%
-175
+170
-176
+166
-1½-118
+1½+105
-1½-118
+1½+105
4
2
-0.45869-0.46345-0.51849
Texas Rangers
Detroit Tigers
42.9%
57.1%
+130
-137
+133
-142
+1½-168
-1½+152
+1½-170
-1½+155
5
4
-0.84567-0.86171-0.84683
San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers
49.7%
50.3%
+103
-109
+102
-110


0
1
-0.66503-0.66532-0.68687
Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Mets
43.2%
56.8%
+141
-147
+140
-148
+1½-155
-1½+143
+1½-155
-1½+140
1
9
-0.52899-0.52957-0.56622
Minnesota Twins
Baltimore Orioles
44.7%
55.3%
+108
-115
+107
-114
+1½-200
-1½+178

2
4
-0.64124-0.64546-0.59267
San Francisco Giants
Miami Marlins
52.1%
47.9%
-108
+100
-105
+102
-1½+152
+1½-165

3
1
-0.67446-0.67627-0.65272
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks93-6 (0.333)0-0.74506 
Sportsbooks93-6 (0.333)0-0.74327 
DRatings94-5 (0.444)0-0.73537
0.00970
0.00791

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.